Weekly Market Report: November 8th, 2024

Last week markets took in a relatively light economic calendar but a full slate of corporate earnings reports, an important FOMC meeting, and the results of highly anticipated elections in the U.S. All four aspects, particularly the latter, contributed to a strong week for equity markets and a volatile week for bond markets. The S&P 500 (+4.7%) notched another new record high, breaking the 6,000 mark for the first time in the process. International developed and emerging equity markets both ended the week relatively flat thanks in large part to a strengthening USD. Bond yields surged mid-week but proceeded to unwind and close the week as 10yr yields closed down 7bps on the week.

Market Anecdotes

• Equity markets enjoyed an unwind of election hedges, VIX/MOVE retreats, favorable seasonality, stock buyback momentum, and a healthy dose of election related FOMO/animal spirits. Bond and currency markets endured a mid-week scare but ultimately settled relatively flat.
• Immediate market reaction to the RRR complexion in DC was a selloff in the bond market accompanied by a surge in the USD and small caps due to higher probabilities of tax cuts and tariffs. As the week drew to a close, equity markets retained gains and bond markets ended flat.
• Longer term, the degree of policy pragmatism and economic implications will dictate market outcomes. Positioning for short term equity market strength and bond market weakness with a close eye on yield impact on equity markets and policy development feels right.
• Last week’s FOMC meeting was lacking in suspense as markets received precisely what they expected, a 25- bps rate cut. However, the backdrop moved further away from one warranting the aggressive rate cuts priced in at the beginning of the year given labor and inflation trends.
• Expectations for Fed policy as expressed in futures and prevailing interest rates have clearly signaled risks of a dovish mistake with rate cut expectations now less than 4 cuts in the coming year, the 3m/10yr slope moving toward uninverting, and long-term bond yields rising sharply.
• Monetary policy in the U.S. has shifted focus from taming inflation to working toward an orderly cooling of the tight labor market and contained long-term inflation expectations have likely bolstered Fed confidence in doing so.
• An FT article made note that the strong U.S. economy backed by the consumer carries record high income gaps where the top 20% account for 40% of all spending and the bottom 40% account for 20% of all spending.
• We’re now at the 91% mark of S&P 500 3Q earnings reports with blended top and bottom lines of 5.5% and 5.3%, respectively, in what can still be categorized as mixed outcomes due in large part to beat margins of only 4.5% coming in lower than usual.
• An article in the FT highlighted rising risks of re-defaulting instances in CRE following the unprecedented ‘extend and pretend’ trend of loan modifications by U.S. banks in response to commercial real estate stress.
• Chinese stimulus details announced last week were centered on a $1.4t local government bond swap, a larger than anticipated figure but still centered on stabilization rather than stimulus.
• Money market/SOFR rates surged at the end of Q3, drawing renewed attention to the FOMC quantitative tightening initiative which has reduced the size of the Fed balance sheet by a historic $2t since June 2022.

Economic Release Highlights

• The October ISM Services Index improved from 54.9 to 56.0, beating the spot forecast (53.5) and coming in above the consensus range of 53.0 to 55.8.
• The JPM Global Composite PMI readings improved in November with Services (52.9 to 53.1) and Manufacturing (48.8 to 49.4) taking the Composite reading to 52.3.
• The UofM Consumer Sentiment Index for November came in above consensus (73.0 vs 70.8) and 1yr inflation expectations declined from 2.7% to 2.6%.

Weekly Market Report: November 1st, 2024

Market Anecdotes

• While the soft landing/no landing bullish narrative is still intact, risk appetites have been tempered the past couple of weeks thanks to the backdrop of rising bond yields and election uncertainty.
• Seventy percent of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings with results somewhat mixed overall. Blended earnings growth stands at 5.1% with beat rates and margins at 75% and 4.6% respectively. Revenue growth is at 5.2%.
• The Fed members were quiet last week in anticipation of this week’s FOMC meeting where markets are pricing a 99% probability of a 25-bps rate cut.
• With U.S. elections looming, BCA forecasters are leaning (55%) toward a Trump win with “Red Sweep” odds increasing to 47% and “Blue Gridlock” odds at 53%. There are several higher conviction investment implications to consider.
• China’s stimulus details were leaked last week at CNY 10t bond issuance over three years, 60% to boost local government balance sheets and 40% to buy raw land and housing. Meanwhile, anti-corruption crackdowns are rising.

Economic Release Highlights

• PCE inflation saw YoY headline (2.1% vs 2.1%) and core (2.7 vs 2.6%) both generally inline with forecasts. MoM headline (0.2%) and core (0.3%) both came in right at the spot forecast.
• Personal income growth of 0.3% increased from August’s 0.2% but came in slightly below the 0.4% estimate while Personal Consumption Expenditures of 0.5% beat the 0.4% estimate.
• October payrolls missed sharply with only 12,000 reported jobs, well below the spot forecast of 125,000 and range (57,000 – 180,000). The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings were generally in line with estimates at 0.4% MoM and 4% YoY.
• The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q3 rose 0.8%, slightly below consensus estimate of 1% but within the forecast range (0.7% to 1.0%). YoY ECI rose 3.9%, less than the 4.1% forecast.
• The JOLT Survey for September registered 7.443M job openings, well under the spot consensus of 7.900M and the forecast range of 7.8M to 8.0M.
• The initial 3Q U.S. GDP estimate came in slightly below forecast (2.8% vs 3.0%) while PCE exceeded (3.7% vs 3.0%) and came in above the high end of the forecast range of 2.0%-3.6%.
• The October ISM Manufacturing Index registered 46.5, below the consensus forecast of 47.6 while the final PMI Manufacturing index was revised up from 47.3 to 48.5.
• The Consumer Confidence Index in October jumped from 98.7 to 108.7, well above the spot forecast of 99.1 and consensus range of 97.7 to 100.5.
• Pending Home Sales jumped 7.4% MoM, well above the 1.0% expectation with the index climbing from 70.6 to 75.8.
• The Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.4% MoM in August, up 5.2% YoY.

Weekly Market Report: October 25th, 2024

Market Anecdotes

• Q3 S&P 500 earnings season is 37% complete with beat rates and margins of 75% and 5.7%, respectively. Blended earnings growth stands at 3.6% and revenue growth at 4.9%.
• The recent BoA survey data has seen the likelihood of a ‘hard landing’ near its lowest level of the past 18 months with expectations of a ‘no landing’ scenario increasing notably and a clear consensus expectation of a ‘soft landing.’
• Hawkish FedSpeak narratives continued last week with futures markets continuing to moderate expectations of FOMC rate cuts, now down to roughly 1.25% (5 cuts) over the next 12 months.
• 10yr UST yields rose above 4.2% for the first time since the summer as yields continue to grind higher following the September FOMC rate cut.
• The no landing scenario likely implies higher interest rates stemming from increasing inflationary pressures which, history suggests, may present challenges to equity markets.
• Torsten Slok notes that while higher market interest rates would suggest higher corporate debt servicing costs, companies taking steps to lock in low QE and post pandemic rates have seen non-financial corporate net interest payments decrease to near record low levels.
• The dominance of the U.S. stock market relative to non-U.S. stocks has been remarkable, with the former outpacing the latter in eight of the past ten years. Looking at the next 10 years, valuations, currencies, and nominal bond yields may present challenges to a repeat.
•  A long-term look at home affordability from Bianco Research reminded investors that, while first time home buyer affordability today is clearly an outlier, the ultra-low interest rate QE era may not be the best relative comparison.

Economic Release Highlights

• October U.S. flash PMI (C,M,S) registered (54.3, 47.8, 55.3), in line with the consensus forecast and prior month levels.
• October Eurozone flash PMI (C,M,S) registered (49.7, 45.9, 51.2), meeting expectations but the composite survey remained below the 50 expansionary mark.
• Durable Goods Orders declined 0.8% in September, slightly more than the -0.5% spot forecast while the ExTransportation figure beat expectations (0.4% vs -0.1%).
• The final UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up from 69.0 to 70.5 while one-year inflation expectations declined from 2.9% to 2.7%.
• New Home Sales in September registered 738k, slightly above the consensus forecast (718k) and prior month (709k).
• Existing Home Sales in September came in relatively in line with the spot forecast (3.84M vs 3.90M), -1% MoM and -3.7% YoY.

Weekly Market Report: October 18th, 2024

Market Anecdotes

• Early stages of third quarter earnings are getting off to a mixed beginning with above average beats but below average beat margins. Blended earnings and revenue growth rates are currently at 3.4% and 4.7%, respectively.
• Recent price action across small cap U.S. stocks may reflect an increasing probability of the soft landing scenario taking shape.
• Continued strength in various economic reports has taken the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 3Q GDP up to 3.4%, well above the generally expected potential growth rate of 2.0%-2.5%.
• Pricing across Morningstar high yield distressed bond data reinforces the idea that credit markets do not see reason for concern based on trends in the numbers, size, and quality of issuers in the space.
• Last week markets received details on various support measures from the PBOC, MoF, and Housing Ministry in China that seem to have impacted the domestic stock market more so than the economic growth outlook.
• Eleven Fed speaking engagements last week served to guide markets toward a more hawkish stance with regard to expected future monetary policy moves.
• The ECB delivered what markets were expecting, a third 25 bps rate cut to the refi and deposit rates, taking them down to 3.4% and 3.25% respectively. Meanwhile, the BoJ has retreated from their brief window of hawkish policy, with the Yen weakening accordingly.
• Updates on U.S. election predictions from our research outlets are seeing an increasing likelihood of a Trump victory, heightening the specter of unified control in DC.

Economic Release Highlights

• Retail Sales in September came in above consensus forecasts for Headline (0.4% vs 0.3%), ex-Vehicles (0.5% vs 0.1%), and ex-Vehicles & Gas (0.7% vs 0.3%).
• Industrial Production in September came in below the spot forecast (-0.3% vs -0.1%) and saw both manufacturing output and capacity utilization come in under consensus.
• The Housing Market Index for October registered 43, slightly under the expected forecast of 42.
• Housing Starts (1.354M vs 1.400M) and Permits (1.428M vs 1.500M) both came in slightly below their respective consensus forecasts.

Weekly Market Report: October 11th, 2024

Market Anecdotes

• U.S. equity markets maintained their positive momentum, thanks in part to a constructive start to earnings season. Elevated global uncertainty and a notable move higher in bond yields have yet to capture investor attention in the short term.
• With third quarter earnings season now underway, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to grow the bottom line by 4.1% but factoring in historical beat margins, FactSet estimates growth rate will be closer to 9.5%-10%.
• Healthy growth dynamics and last week’s warmer than expected CPI report served to reduce odds of another 50 bps rate cut by the Fed next month.
• With the two-year anniversary of the bull market now in the book, Strategas highlighted the historically average performance of large caps (S&P 500 60.8% vs 60%) and historically below average performance of small caps (Russell 2000 29.9% vs 76.9%) with year 3 to be determined.
• BCA’s geopolitical research pointed out a Harris administration is much more likely to be gridlocked than a Trump administration with markets yet to price in the impacts of sharp immigration curbs, major tax cuts, or global trade wars.
• U.S. government spending increased 10% in FY 2024 while tax revenues increased 11% but the deficit increased by $139b, thanks to interest payments on outstanding debt increasing 34%.
• ETF fund flows show retail investors chasing the surge in China’s equity market with nearly $9b of inflows to China funds, well above the next highest inflow of $1.8b to investment grade credit.
• BCA noted China’s aggressive energy independence push toward nuclear energy poses risks to U.S. dominance in the space where China’s installed capacity just over the past 10 years represents nearly 50% of current installed U.S. capacity.
• A follow-up to last week’s musings about survey response rates and the prevalence of multiple job holders relative to its longer-term trend shows in fact, response rates have fallen and levels of multiple job holders are at their highest point dating back to 1995.

Economic Release Highlights

• The September CPI report came in a bit warmer than consensus forecast with YoY readings of Headline (2.4% vs 2.3%) and Core (3.3% vs 3.2%) and MoM readings of Headline (0.2% vs 0.1%) and Core (0.3% vs 0.2%).
• Headline PPI in September rose YoY (1.8% vs 1.6%) and MoM (0% vs 0.2%) while core readings were up YoY (2.0% vs 2.7%) and MoM (0.2% vs 0.2%).
• Consumer Sentiment declined slightly in October to 68.9 from 70.1 while 1-year ahead inflation expectations increased from 2.7% to 2.9%. 
• The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was mostly flat versus the prior month at 91.5.